Wendy Leung's Seattle Condo Blog

Seattle Condo Market Update January 2012- Median Prices Lower Than 2011

• January data is in. The big story is median prices which dropped 13% from $234,000 to $208,000 (the biggest month over month decline in a long time).  
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• At the neighborhood level, Queen Anne and Magnolia had the toughest January with a 20% drop in median prices. Ballard and Greenlake, on the other hand, had a stronger showing with median prices rising 18% from December 2011 to January 2012.
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• One encouraging spot is pending sales in January were up 6% compared to December 2011. Also, despite Queen Anne/Magnolia median price pressure, pending sales were up 50% from December to January. 

Seattle Condo Market December Update: Steady Sales from Lower Supply

Last December only had 689 condos for sale in Seattle, a drop of 16% from the previous month, and 30% fewer than December 0f 2010.  In contrast to shrinking supply, year-over-year December closed sales were up by 16%.  In fact, December 2011 ended with 22% more closed transactions than January 2011, good improvement...but not a home run. 

Median prices were off by 7% from twelve months ago landing at $234,000 in December and have been hovering under the $250,000's mark for the past 7 months. 

Supply absorption rate (based on closed sales versus inventory) showed sign of improvement from the beginning of the year.  In January, we had around 9 months of supply and the year ended with 5 months supply, moving from a strong buyers' market to a neutral market (favoring neither buyers nor sellers).

Overall, the year concluded with lower supply and higher sales from beginning of the year but median prices were still showing softness.  If the market continues the same momentum as the last few months with lower supply and higher sales, we might start seeing gradual pricing improvement.  Much like the national economy, things are getting slightly better, but it's a slow road.

 

Seattle Condo Market Fairs Well In November 2011

November 2011 data is in for the Seattle condo market and all things considered, it was a pretty good month -- considerably more promising than October.

Highlights:

• Sales month over month were flat (which is actually good since we're now entering the holiday season) but when you compare year over year, we saw about the same number of sales from October 2010 to October 2011. November, on the other hand, saw sales go up a strong 44% from November 2010 to November 2011.
• Median prices recovered 7% from $226K in October 2011 to $240K in November 2011.
• Supply remained stable with only 824 units for sale (versus over 1,127 in June).

Have a Happy Holiday!

Wendy

 

Comparing Seattle Condo Market Sentiment from Early 2011 to Late 2011

Earlier this year we had a poll asking readers how the condo market would do in 2011. Last month we had a similar poll asking for sentiment about 2012.

So has the vibe changed from last year to this year?

Seattle Condo Inventory at Lowest Levels since Feb 2007

The Seattle condo market continues to show lower levels of inventory and lower median prices than 2010.  

For the month of October, we had 137 homes closed, an increase of 10.48% from October 2010 and at the same level of closing versus last month. Condo inventory dipped by 8% from the previous month and 32.47% from twelve months ago. There was only 911 homes on the market. This is the lowest level of inventory listed on the NWMLS we have ever seen since February 2007. 

Year-over-year pending sales shot up by 56.30% with 211 homes under contract (not closed yet) last month. The median price for October's closed sales was at $226,000, down by 9.60% from a year ago. Comparing that with the previous month, it was down by ~6%. Seventy five percent of the homes sold last month were under $400,000. Bank owned and short sales accounted for ~35% of the sales. 

The absorption rate for Seattle condos showed slight improvement from the previous month. We had about 6.6 months of inventory on the market based on closed sales and 4.3 months based on pending sales. Last month it was at 7.1 and 4.9 months respectively. A 6 month absorption rate indicates a neutral market so we are in that range now. 

Overall, we still have pretty consistent sales, although most of the sales are occurring in the lower price ranges. Short sales and bank owned condos also account for some price pressure on the condo value. Moving towards the end of the year with holidays around the corner, we can expect fewer condos coming on the market, fewer sales and most likely lower prices. 

 

Inventory Glut Showing Improvement: Months of Inventory Down by 50% Versus Same Time Last Year

September condo sales figures are in and here are some highlights:

• Inventory is at its lowest level for this year coming in at less than 1,000 condos on the market. Listings were down 7% versus August.
• Pending sales are up by 34.67% compare to same period last year and about the same as the previous month.
• Year-over-year sales were up 4.58% but were down from the previous month by ~20%.
• Median prices were steady floating around $240,000 to $255,000 for the last few months but down by close to 20% from a year ago.
• Months of inventory (how long it would take to consume all the available units based on current run rate) continues to show improvment from a year ago. We had about 7 months of inventory on the market based on closed sales and 5 months based on pending sales. Compared that to a year ago, it was at 11 months and10 months respectively.

Seattle's August Condo Sales Bump Up after Dip in July

•  NWMLS reported 172 condo sales in August, a gain of more than 20% from the same period last year and 26%  higher than the previous month. The neighborhood with the biggest gain in condo sales is in Belltown/Downtown with 50 condos closed, twice the amount than last year.
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• The median price for closed condos was at $246,000, This is down by 17.17% from tweleve months ago and staying around the $250,000 level for the last three months. Interestingly, If we look at June, July and August 2010, median price was staying at around $290,000 level.
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• We had 244 new units of inventory added to the market last month totalling 1,048 condos on the market, a drop of 29.76% from a year ago and 3.5% from the previous month. August was the 2nd lowest inventory level for this year. January 2011 was the lowest level with 1041 condos on the market.
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• Months of inventory (how long it would take to consume all the available units based on current run rate) is showing improvement from August 2010.  Last month, we had about 6 months of inventory on the market based on closed sales and 5 months based on pending sales. Compared that to a year ago, it was at 10 months and 8 months respectively.

Seattle Apartment Buildings Continue Circle of Life

As the demolition work at the McGuire Apartment is pressing on layer by layer, a couple of new buildings are emerging in Belltown and the circle of life continues.  Note these are not condos but rather apartments (my blog must go on).

One of them is located right across the street south of Mosler Lofts called Altos (2612 3rd Ave). Not so good news for Mosler owners who live on the south side of the building as most of their views will be blocked by this taller building. Altos is a 17-story, 184 unit building with an estimated completion date of Spring 2012. It looks like a nice building; perhaps, it would be a nice condo conversion towards the end of the decade?

Another apartment project will be built on 6th Ave between Lenora and Blanchard. Construction is already underway for this 654 unit luxury apartment complex which is comprised of two 24-story towers with retail space. This project is expected to complete in 2013. Read more on Sixth and Lenora Apartments.

According to Dupre and Scott Aparment Advisors' forecast model last year, rents will climb 2.3% in 2011. They expect rents to rise to 4.6% in 2012 and 5.1% in 2013. If all of this come true, it will be nice timing for Altos and Sixth and Lenora Apartments to enter the market.

I looked into some condo rentals on the MLS and landlords have a much better time renting out their condos these days than three years ago. The average days on market for condos in Belltown and downtown is 55 days as oppose to 91 days three years ago this same period.  Hope everyone's enjoying 2011, it's the year of the rental units :-)

Related posts:

2010 Seattle Condo Market in Review
McGuire Building to be demolished
For the Data Junkies: Dupre and Scott Apartment Investor Report
Conversion and Rental Market Report
Seattle Rental Market

 

Seattle Condo Market Muddles Forward for July of 2011

July numbers are in for the Seattle condo market and they're much like the national economy: nothing to get excited about.  

Some highlights:

• After three months of increases in sales, July sales came in below March levels but above Feb and took an almost 30% drop versus June.
• Those sales numbers were slightly better year-over-year with July sales about 6% below July of the previous year.  This was actually better than June 2011 which was 15% below June of the previous year.
• Median prices month-to-month were up from $246k in June to $255k in July.  Total condo listings meanwhile stayed steady and dropped less than 4% versus June.

Overall, this data looked a bit like the national economy.  Some positive signs but pretty marginal.

Almost Half of Queen Anne Condos Sold were Bank Owned or Short Sale

Back in April, I put together some charts on bank owned and short sale properties in Seattle looking at how long it takes to close on these types of properties.

This time we are going to look at which neighborhoods have the most bank owned and short sale inventory and sales. Active listing data is from the first day of August 2011.  Sold data is based on the last 6 months (2/11-7/11). Co-op's are removed from all these areas. So, we will be looking at purely condos.

Some highlights:

• While Belltown may have the image of the epicenter of the condo bubble, almost half of all Queen Anne condo sales were either bank owned or short sales compared to 1/4 for Capitol Hill and 1/5 for Belltown/Downtown.
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• Of today's active listings, Capitol Hill takes the prize with 23% of short sales compared to 20% and 11% for Queen Anne and Belltown/Downtown, respectively. 
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• For those of you sensitive to what you can get for your money, the average price per square foot sold for short sale condos in Queen Anne and Capitol Hill is $258.11 and $304.31, respectively. As for Belltown/Downtown, they are going for $368.88/square foot.
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• Queen Anne has the highest number of bank owned condos sold (in fairness, 1/3 of them are from 200 W Highland project). 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle Condo Market May 2011 Analysis

Seattle May condo numbers showed something for everyone. 

• On the positive side, May 2011 pending sales were up almost 52% compared to May of 2010 and were even compared to April 2011. We saw greatest strength in the Belltown/Downtown (+88.57% vs May 2010), Ballard/Greenlake (+157.14%), and North Seattle (+58.33%) neighborhoods. In fact, Belltown pending sales were not only up year-over-year but also double digit percentage growth month-over-month as well.

• On the negative side, May 2011 median prices for most neighborhoods still remain lower than same period last year and versus April 2011.  The major exception was Belltown/Downtown were median prices were 14.86% versus last year (note: 25% of Belltown/Downtown sales were from Olive 8).      

Seattle Condo Market Update: April 2011

April numbers are in and in a word, things appear "unchanged."  After a nice 30% boost in sales from Feb to March, sales in April were almost identical to March.  Prices were up ever so slightly, and total listings were almost identical.  So people are still buying (though not more or less than before) and people are still selling (also no more or less than before) and they're doing it at almost the same prices.

My advice is if you need a place to live and find a great unit, there's not a lot of risk in buying now since prices are pretty stable.  However, if you're on the fence, waiting and seeing won't incur too much opportunity cost.  

It's similar advice for sellers.  Go ahead if you're ready to unload but if you hold, don't hold your breath for the market to return much higher prices.

Call it the period of condo zen....

Want to see a lot of similar bars on a chart?  Check out the pretty pics below.

Seattle Bank Owned & Short Sale Condo Properties

Last week, I spoke to a client who was looking for a condo but has 3-6 months to move. He was interested in purchasing either a bank owned or short sale property and wondering if he could move within his ideal time line since both type of properties have a reputation for taking longer to close than regular condo due to bank paperwork and bureaucracy.  

In other words, how long would it take to buy a bank owned or short sale condo in Seattle?  I looked up the data on NWMLS yesterday and put together these charts:

(Information from NWMLS is deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Some interesting factoids:

1.) About 1 in 4 current Seattle condo listings are either bank owned or short sales.

2.) About 1 in 3 Seattle recent condo sales are either bank owned or short sales.

3.)  There are more short sales on the market than bank owned properties. For every 2 bank owned condos on the market, they are 3 short sale condos. 

4.) The average days on market for bank owned properties is 123 days and for short sales is 129 days. Regular condos took an average of 148 days and this is due to the high end condos taking longer to sell and increasing the overall average days on market.   

So bank owned and short sales properties are looking more attractive than they used to-- especially now that the time to closing appears to be a lot shorter than a lot of people expect. 

Related posts:

Short Sales, Bank Owned, Foreclosure Condos
HAFA to Ease Short Sale Process

Downtown Seattle Condo Blog Update

Well, we are nearing the end of the first quarter, if you are wondering what is going on with Escala and Olive 8, here is a quick update.

Sales have been pretty consistent at Escala. Ever since the new sales team took over the project a year ago with some realistic price reductions, they have closed about 80 homes with an additional 15 pending for closing. Not bad for a year's effort.

What's interesting is that during my last tour, I had the chance to revisit their E floor plan. This home is facing west with really nice city and water views but it has a huge supporting column with a double sided fireplace in the middle of the living room. The sales team came up with a way to reduce the size of the column. What an improvement! The living space is more open and gives you better views. I thought that was a great idea giving buyer that option to reduce the column size. Check out the before and after pics below. 

Escala E floor plan before
Escala E floor plan after
(The drawings are for illustrative purposes only.) 

 E plans start at $1,089,000 on the east side of the building and $1,249,000 on the west side.

 

 

Olive 8 announced  they have closed 17 sales since the new year.  They have also launched their spring event offering special financing from 1.5% (for a conforming 5 year ARMs, 2.8% APR). In addition, the developer will be covering the closing costs and credit the first year's home-owner dues and health-club membership fees if the purchase closes before May 31st.

Related posts:

Escala's New Pricing
Escala Scaling Prices Soon
Escala Update Dec 2009
Escala Hard Hat Tour 
Escala Update
Escala Update February 2007
Escala priority presale event
Escala: Cristalla's biggest competition

Olive 8 Reset Pricing?
Olive 8's Video & Reset Pricing
Olive 8's New Pricing 
Olive 8 Auction Results
Olive 8 & 5th and Madison Update
Olive 8 going Auction

Seattle Condo Market Update: February 2011

February 2011 Seattle Condo Market data is in.  Some quick highlights and charts below:

• Pending sales were down from 175 in January to 165 this past February.  Furthermore, compared to February 2010, February 2011 had 21% fewer pending sales.
• Listings were up slightly from January 2011.
• Median prices were up for the second month, the highest median price in the last 6 months.

The biggest disappointment is probably the dip in pending sales and the biggest counterpoint is the strength in median prices.  I'll let readers draw their own conclusions based on the data.