Seattle Condo Review: Blog with News & Advice about Seattle Condos

Seattle Condo Market Update

July figures continue to show a slowdown in activity in Seattle.  Total active listings for July were 2.3% lower than the previous month but still 14% higher than same period last year. Even though the rate of new inventory added every month has gradually decreased, it is still a buyers' market.

Median prices in Seattle have dropped by 4.45% from $313,945 to $299,975.  This is the biggest drop for this year versus the same time last year.  As for Belltown/Downtown area, total active listings remained the same as same period last year and 5% lower than the previous month. If this trend continues, we may see a gradual shift from a strong buyers' market to more a balanced market.

Sellers who were holding firm on the their price earlier are now more open with a price reduction to move their condo with many of them opting to continue renting out their homes to wait for the market to pick up.  Home buyers on the other hand are putting offers with 5-10% reduction in the price taking full advantage of the market conditions.

Seattle Condo Market Update

Anxious about what is happening to the condo market over the next few months in Seattle?  Join the club.  May numbers are in and here are some highlights. 

The bad news is we continue to see high inventory compared to the same time last year and pending sales were down compared to the same time last year.  The good news is median prices actually went up 4%. There was also a small increase in median prices of 2.5% compared to last month.

From Flipper to Landlord?

With so many condo buyers still sitting on the sidelines, it appears they're driving up rental prices.  If you were planning to sell an investment property this year but are worried about all those bearish buyers, you may want to rent your place out.  Chances are your condo will command very attractive rents.  One report is suggesting rents are already up 6% over last year and apartment vacancy rates are below 5%.

Seattle Condo Market Update

The April numbers are in and there's good news and bad news.  Let's start with the bad news.

• For the first time in a long time, median prices in Belltown dropped.  If you remember my last update in March, we saw median prices rise over 13% versus March 2007.  In April, we saw median prices drop by 7%.  We'll have to see how the next few months play out to determine if this is the adjustment we've all been waiting for so that buyers on the sidelines can come back in or if prices drop further.

The good news:

• April over Apil inventory (April 2008 as a proportion of April 2007 inventory) has come down compared to March over March numbers.  In March, Belltown inventory was 51% higher than March of 2007.  In April, Belltown inventory was 41% higher than April of 2007.  If this trend continues, it would suggest that there while we are certainly seeing more units on the market than last year, there does appear to be a ceiling in terms of how much more supply is entering the market and as a result (all else equal), we will have a floor on how low prices will ultimately go. 

Conversions and Rental Market Report

Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisor has reported on the rental market for King County and Seattle for March 2008. Here are some interesting highlights from their report.

1. In March, 4.1 percent of King County apartments and 3.1 percent of those in Seattle were vacant, only up a smidgen from March 2007 when vacancies were at 3.9 percent in the county and 2.8 percent in Seattle and still less than half of the 2003 vacancy rates.
2. One big reason vacancies have started increasing is that the housing slump has dramatically slowed down new conversions of apartments into condominiums.
3. 2006 conversion bonanza: conversions hitting the market went from 900 in 2003 to 1,800 in 2004; 3,600 in 2005 and more than 6,000 in 2006 -- fueled the drop in the vacancy rate during those years. But conversions fell to 2,800 last year (subtracting 1,200 units that started to convert, then reverted to rentals) and just 168 units have converted or are scheduled to convert so far this year.
4. Conversions in the past three years outpaced new development by a total of 5,400 units.
5. Apartment rents averaged $1,026 in King County and $1,071 in Seattle in March 2008, up about 8.5 percent in both cases from March 2007.

Overall, this is good news for condo owners who are already renting out their units or considering renting them out in the near future.  For renters, it appears that while rents won't be going down anytime soon, they are not likely to be continuing to increase as much as they did last year.

-Wendy

Quick Review of the Seattle Condo Market in 2007

Five things we now know that we didn't know before the end of 2007.

1.)  The housing crash did not happen in Seattle despite constant media reports, bearish pundets, and market crises in most other regions of the US throughout 2006.

2.)  It is possible for one of the nation's top mortgage companies, American Home Mortgage, to stop funding approved loans leaving some homebuyers unpleasantly surprised at their closing appointments.

3.)  In Seattle, the biggest portion of new construction inventory, approximately 3500 units is proposed for 2010. However, these inventories may not all come through.

4.)  Homebuyers care deeply and intensely about how developers communicate with them on the delays for their condo and aren't afraid to blog, post, and comment about it. Some of those developers and marketers will probably get more skepticism on their future projects.

5.)  Most buyers went into wait and see mode in late 2007 and, for the most part, sellers didn't budge, took their properties off the market, or made symbolic price reductions.

Five things we suspected were true in 2007 but now we know for sure.

1.)  Seattle strong job growth is keeping the demand up.

2.)  Retiree (65 and above) and baby boomers formed the largest group of home buyers for new condo projects in downtown Seattle.

3.)  There is material demand for previously untested hotel/condo combo projects in the Seattle market.

4.)  Apartment-to-condo conversions decreased the supply of rentals and local job growth pushed up previously stable rental prices. 

5.)  The days of easy double digit appreciation and speculative flipping are over (at least for the next few years).

Five things we need to know as soon as possible if we want to know what is going to happen for Seattle condo market in the long term.

1.)  Will buyers re-enter the market in the first quarter of 2008 or will they continue to wait and see?

2.)  Will sellers continue their relative discipline and patience or will they start a price race to the bottom?

3.)  Will Seattle's employers maintain their growth or will they be affected by slower economic growth as seen in other regions in the country?

4.)  Will rental properties raise rents enough to make waiting less attractive than buying?

5.)  Will the sub-prime mortgage mess spread to the rest of the mortgage industry?

-Wendy

Belltown Recovery?

It's still very early but I noticed there was a slight uptick in activity in the core Belltown resale market in December. 

In November, there were only two 2BR units in the $400-600K range in Belltown that went from Active to Contingent. In December, there were four units that went from Active to Contingent status (note: Decembers are historically a slower month than Novembers).

Perhaps this is an early indicator that some buyers, who seemed to be price inelastic over the last few months, are starting to pull the trigger once again. 

Stay tuned.

-Wendy

Where in Seattle will the investor money go in 2008?

Seattle Condo Market Update

As we move into the last quarter of the year, let's examine the numbers. Overall for the month of October, inventory in Seattle remains higher than same time last year by 76.15% with a total listings of 1,573 condos. Median closed price is still holding up at 10.61% higher than Oct 2006.

Pending sales have slowed down for Capitol Hill/Madison Park/Central and Queen Anne/Lake Union/Magnolia areas by 9.52% and 38.71% respectively versus the same time last year. The Belltown/downtown area on the other hand is showing an increase in pending sales by 42.86% compared to a year ago with more than half of the pending sales coming from new construction condos. However, median closed price in Belltown/downtown area dipped by 19.66%, this is due to a higher number of lower price range condos sold last month compared to a year ago.

Many industry experts argue that with the low interest rates and the increase in the month of inventory, this last quarter presents a good opportunity for home buyers.

Moving into a the slower season with Thanksgiving around the corner and many buyers deferring their searches till next year, market activity will most likely slow down for the rest of the year.

September update

-Wendy

Seattle Rental Market

Let's face it. With the exception of the high end of the market, the mainstream downtown condo mid-market is not really moving. In fact, increasing numbers of patient home buyers are worried prices will retreat further the moment after they buy. As a result, more and more sellers are tired of waiting for a buyer and opting to become these waiting buyers' landlords rather than raise the white flag and make huge price reductions. 

Moreover, those sellers who have experimented with dropping selling prices aren't seeing much change in buyer activity anyway. Much of the market is on lock-down mode and it seems most buyers have made up their minds that they're not getting in this year regardless of the numbers. It would appear as though there have only been 2 speeds in downtown Seattle condos for the last few years, fast and stop.  As an example, only one 2BR condo less than $500K was sold in Belltown in September and another one in October.

The optimistic owners are quietly taking their units off MLS and hoping buyers return to the market at the same time in the Spring to compete against each other for the most desirable units next year (probably in May/June). In fact, 15% of those who took the recent SCR poll as of the time of this post believed prices will rise in the Spring and another 15% believed prices will be steady but inventory will move more quickly.

SCR Reader Poll: Will it be a happy Spring 2008?

Seattle Real Estate news

If you're like many homebuyers sitting on the fence and wondering what is going to happen to the downtown condo market, here's an interesting article from the Seattle Post Intellingencer.

 

Some interesting data:

• 83 percent of the more than 1,200 new downtown condo units that came on line in 2007 have been sold.
• All of the more than 1,400 downtown units built from 2000 through 2006 have sold, according to market research firm Realogics.
• Half of the approximately 1,600 condos Gardner expected to hit the market in 2010 still are looking for financing.
• The state Office of Financial Management estimates the population of downtown Seattle -- the commercial core, South Lake Union, Belltown, the Denny Triangle and Pioneer Square -- grew by 31 percent from 2000 through April 1, 2006.

-Wendy

Mortgage Meltdown?

A month ago, American Home Mortgage, one of the nation's top 50 mortgage companies stopped funding loans leaving some homebuyers unpleasantly surprised at their closing appointments. Countrywide recently announced that they will be eliminating around 500 jobs nationwide as they try to ride out the liquidity shortage. Yesterday's news reported that Capitol One is shutting down their mortgage division GreenPoint which specializes in Jumbo loans (loan that are above $417,000).

So what is going on with the mortgage/lending industry? Is the sky falling? Should we all sell immediately and start renting? As a homebuyer, what should you know and prepare for? I had the chance to talk to Rick Davis, Mortgage Banker with First Horizon to get his insights and point of view:

1.) So what started this whole volatility in the lending/mortgage industry?

The real estate and mortgage industries have been partying for 5 years, and now it's time for the hangover. The pendulum has swung from one extreme to another. After making aggressive loans to marginally qualified buyers, we're now trying to restore some sanity to the lending process. The unfortunate fact is that things will likely get worse before they get better.

The secondary market has gone away for many types of loans, putting a shock wave through the industry and creating the "Liquidity Crisis." This crisis has forced the mortgage industry to retreat back to the old ways of doing things-full documentation loans with strict guidelines.

2.) What can buyers expect when they are applying for a loan?

The loan application process has not changed, but the levels of documentation required have become more stringent for almost every loan program. Buyers should expect to work with an experienced, professional lender who is capable and equipped to interpret the market for them, and discuss how it impacts their particular situation.

With loan guidelines changing weekly, buyers should expect to have an in depth discussion with their lender about their loan program and qualifications: Is their approval for a program that has been changing (e.g. stated income, interest only or 100% financing)? What is their time-line for buying a condo and what is the likelihood that their loan approval may change during that time frame? Begin with a strategy and plan not just for your home loan, but for your home buying process as well.

Condo Investments - Not for the Faint of Heart

A lot of my clients are experienced investors. However, I also work with first-time investors as well. For those folks who aren't planning on using their new property as a primary residence and haven't bought and sold investment properties before, there are some things I generally go over before we even consider touring the first unit: 

• Buying a property for zero down and renting it out expecting you'll make a monthly income after dues, taxes, and expenses is highly unlikely to happen. Perhaps you can find a really under priced dated unit and are able to do the renovations yourself but in general, investors experience short term losses and reap their profits in the medium to long term at selling time. 
• Especially if it's primarily an investment property, buying a pricey unit today that is in a hot building may not leave a lot of head room for appreciation a few years out. Consider units that are attractively priced and/or in areas that are still developing (and priced accordingly).
• Run the numbers. Make sure you whip out your Excel and see what your monthly costs, taxes, and expected resale value will be to see if the figures pencil out. If the numbers don't work out on paper, they probably won't in real life either.

Hope this helps!

-About Wendy

Upsizing from Condo Living

I've been recently working with some clients to move out of their condo. Initially, they thought they would still have a few more years before moving out of their lovely two bedroom condo in Belltown.  Subsequently, reality set in that it was going to be extremely hard to continue squeezing two adults, a home office, a future baby, and tons of stuff accumulated over the years into their 900 square foot living space. With the prices continuing to escalate for entry level single family houses near the city; they knew they would have to make it happen soon and get out of the perpetual “there might be something else better out there” search syndrome while they could still afford a bigger place.   

They ultimately made the decision to put in an offer for a house in Fremont about a 5 minute drive away from Belltown. Some of the questions that I helped them grapple with included: which neighborhood is already liveable today but is also going to be an increasingly desirable area in the future with good room for price appreciation? I did a lot of analysis looking at the comps, potential job growth in the different areas, price per square foot trends, future traffic issues, etc. One tool that I used as part of their search was the Zillow heat map which is pretty useful to take a look at the overall price per square foot for the different neighborhoods. Here is the heat map for Seattle.