SCR Reader Poll: Will it be a happy Spring 2008?

Comments

[Colin]

I won't make any predictions, but I'd call readers' attention to the material collected at http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/27/some-housing-pictures/
The graphic at the bottom, grabbed from an IMF document that he links to, is especially interesting. These are of course national data, but they suggest we face several years of downward pressure. Quoth the IMF:

"... the effects of previous excesses are
likely to continue at least through 2008, as low
introductory “teaser” rates on adjustable-rate
mortgages (ARMs) reset to higher rates, and
as mortgages start to amortize (Figure 1.7).
Unlike previous years, borrowers experiencing
payment difficulties are expected to have fewer
refinancing options, since falling house prices
reduce the amount of homeowner equity, while
tighter lending standards limit the range of
mortgages available to nonprime borrowers."

[Ken]

Krugman is one smart dude but he looks at the macroeconomic data. I think every region is unique and based on the relative strength of the Seattle market so far and assuming the rest of the country doesn't fall to far, I'd argue Seattle still has some nice steady growth ahead.

[jane]

fascinating how evenly split the survey looks. i suppose that's to be expected.